1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910464020203321

Autore

Romeu Rafael

Titolo

Vacation over : implications for the Caribbean of opening U.S.-Cuba tourism / / Rafael Romeu ; authorized for distribution by Andy Wolfe

Pubbl/distr/stampa

[Washington, District of Columbia] : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008

©2008

ISBN

1-4623-2552-1

1-4527-9448-0

9786612841132

1-282-84113-0

1-4518-7020-5

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (64 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/162

Altri autori (Persone)

WolfeAndy

Disciplina

338.47917290452

Soggetti

Tourism - Caribbean Area - Econometric models

Tourism - Cuba - Econometric models

International economic relations - Econometric models

Tourism - Econometric models

Electronic books.

Cuba Foreign economic relations United States Econometric models

United States Foreign economic relations Cuba Econometric models

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Adapting Gravity Trade Theory; III. Data; IV. Estimation; V. Conclusions; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of Caribbean Tourism; 2. Destination Tourist Base Concentration; 3. OECD and Caribbean Country Groups; 4. Hurricanes Making Landfall, 1995-2004; 5. Gravity Estimates of Caribbean Tourism; 6. Cuba: Estimates of Bilateral Tourist Arrivals; 7. The Impact on the Caribbean of Opening U.S. tourism to Cuba; 8. Alternative Estimates of U.S.-Cuba Unrestricted Tourism in the Caribbean; 9. Model 1: Projected Arrivals from Gravity Estimates



10. Model 3: Long-term Gravity Estimation with Industry Costs Figures; 1. OECD Tourist Arrivals; 2. Cuba-U.S. Tourism Distortions; 3. Evolution of Cuba in Caribbean Tourism; 4. Distribution of Tourist within Destinations; 5. Top Five Clients of Caribbean Destinations, 1995-2004; 6. Top Five Destinations of OECD Visitors, 1995-2004; 7. Clustering by Tourism Preferences 1995-2004; 8. Clustering by Fundamentals and Culture; 9. Cost Comparison Across Caribbean; 10. Market Concentration Based on Hotel Rooms, 1996-2004; 11. Airlines Owned by OECD and Caribbean Countries

12. Modeling of Tourist from the U.S.A 13. Modeling of Tourist Arrivals to Cuba; 14. Hotel Capacity Utilization; 15. Before and After Assuming U.S. Tourists New to Caribbean; 16. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming All New U.S. Tourists; 17. Before and After Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 18. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming No New U.S. Tourists; 19. Map Assuming U.S. Arrivals Divert from the Rest of the Caribbean; 20. Caribbean by U.S. Arrivals and OECD by Arrivals to Cuba; 21. Gravity Estimates of Long-term Adjustment of Destinations; 22. Pie Charts of Gravity Estimates

23. Gravity Estimates of Percent Change in Arrivals 24. OECD, Caribbean, Relative Size with Open Tourism; VI. References; VII. Appendix

Sommario/riassunto

An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market sh