Macroeconomic fluctuations in the Caribbean [[electronic resource] ] : the role of climatic and external shocks / / prepared by Sebastian Sosa and Paul Cashin

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910463999603321
• Autore: Sosa Sebastian
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: [Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, Western Hemisphere Dept., 2009
• ISBN: 1-4623-5173-5; 1-4527-1071-6; 1-4518-7306-9; 9786612843723; 1-282-84372-9
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (29 p.)
• Collana: IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/159
• Altri autori (Persone): CashinPaul
• Soggetti: Natural disasters - Economic aspects; Electronic books.; Caribbean Area Economic conditions
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "July 2009."
• Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. Introduction; II. Econometric Approach; A. Specification and Identification Strategy; B. Block Structure, Variables, and Data; Tables; 1. Block Exogeneity Restrictions of the VAR Model; C. Estimation; III. Business Cycle Responses to External Shocks: Empirical Results; 2. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean; 3. Climatic Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; Figures; 1. Natural Disasters and GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean; 2. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks; 3. Response of Real Output to Climatic Shocks; 4. Oil Price Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU4. Response of Real Output to Oil Price Shocks; 5. Real GDP Growth in the Eastern Caribbean and Industrial Countries; 5. External Demand Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; 6. Response of Real Output to External Demand Shocks; 6. World Real Interest Rate Shocks and Output Fluctuations in the ECCU; IV. Concluding Remarks; 7. Response ; of Real Output to World Real Interest Rate Shocks; Appendix Tables; A1. Antigua and Barbuda: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A2. Dominica: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A3. Grenada: Variance Decomposition of Real OutputA4. St. Kitts and Nevis: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A5. St. Lucia: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; A6. St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Variance Decomposition of Real Output; References
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper develops country-specific VAR models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output-but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuation