Global business cycles [[electronic resource] ] : convergence or decoupling? / / M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, and Eswar S. Prasad

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910463996603321
• Autore: Kose M. Ayhan
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, D.C., : International Monetary Fund, 2008
• ISBN: 1-4623-3965-4; 1-4527-8339-X; 1-4518-7001-9; 9786612840944; 1-282-84094-0
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (51 p.)
• Collana: IMF working paper ; ; 8/143
• Altri autori (Persone): OtrokChristopher; PrasadEswar
• Soggetti: Business cycles - Econometric models; Globalization; Electronic books.
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. Introduction; II. Methodology and Data; A. A Dynamic Factor Model; B. Advantages of Dynamic Factor Models; C. Variance Decompositions; D. Data; III. Dynamic Factors and Episodes of Business Cycles; A. Evolution of the Global and Group-Specific Factors; B. Country Factors and Domestic Economic Activity; IV. Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations: 1960-2005; A. Common Cycles: Global and Country-Specific Factors; B. National Cycles: Country and Idiosyncratic Factors; C. Summary; V. Globalization and the Evolution of International Business Cycles; A. Convergence or Decoupling?; B. Consumption ComovementC. Dynamics of Investment; D. Summary; VI. Sensitivity Experiments; A. Results for Sub-groups of Countries; B. Changes in the Importance of Global and Group Factors; C. Implications of Crises; D. Alternative Breakpoints; VII. Conclusion; References; Appendices; I. A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Dynamic Factor Models; II. Testing for Structural Breaks; III. List of Countries; Tables; 1. Variance Decompositions-All Groups; 2. Variance Decompositions-; Industrial Country Subsamples; 3. Variance Decompositions-All Groups; 4. Variance Decompositions-Industrial Country Subsamples5. Variance Decompositions-Emerging Economy Subsamples; 6. Variance Decompositions-Other Developing Economy Subsamples; Figures; 1. Global and Group-Specific Factors; 2. Output Growth and Estimated Factors for Selected Countries; 3. Average Variance Explained by the Global and Group Factors; 4. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group Factors; 5. Average Variance Explained by Global Factor; 6. Average Variance Explained by Group Specific Factors; 7. Average Variance Explained by Global and Group-Specific Factors-All Countries; 8. Output Variance Explained by Global Factor9. Output Variance Explained by Group Factor
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are comm