1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910463991403321

Autore

Elekdag Selim

Titolo

Incorporating market information into the construction of the fan chart [[electronic resource] /] / prepared by Selim Elekdag and Prakash Kannan

Pubbl/distr/stampa

[Washington, D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2009

ISBN

1-4623-6888-3

1-4527-4804-7

1-282-84389-3

9786612843891

1-4518-7325-5

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (23 p.)

Collana

IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/178

Altri autori (Persone)

KannanPrakash

Disciplina

336.54

Soggetti

Economic forecasting - Econometric models

Time-series analysis

Electronic books.

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

"August 2009."

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results

2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References

Sommario/riassunto

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the



International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.