1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910463608803321

Titolo

Pension privatization and country risk / / Alfredo Cuevas [and three others]

Pubbl/distr/stampa

[Washington, District of Columbia] : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008

©2008

ISBN

1-4623-7193-0

1-4527-6623-1

1-4518-7053-1

9786612841460

1-282-84146-7

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (27 p.)

Collana

IMF Working Papers

IMF working paper ; ; WP/08/195

Altri autori (Persone)

CuevasAlfredo

Disciplina

331.252

Soggetti

Pensions - Econometric models

Privatization - Econometric models

Debts, Public - Econometric models

Country risk - Econometric models

Electronic books.

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.

Nota di contenuto

Contents; I. Introduction; II. Country Risk, Credit Ratings and Implicit Pension Debt (IPD); Figures; 1. Standard and Poor's Creidt Ratings and Government Debt; 2. Risk Premia and International Investor Ratings; III. Econometric Analysis; Tables; 1. Institutional Investor Ratings (IIR), IPD and Debt; 2. IIR and Pension Reform: Static Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects; 3. IIR and Pension Reform: Dynamic Panel (2SLS) Estimation Results; IV. A Counterfactual Study: Mexico's Pension Reform; A. Pension Privation in Mexico; B. Risk Assessment

3. Mexico: Counterfactual Explicit Debt and Primary Balance4. Estimated Impact of Pension Reform on IIR; 4. Mexico: Counterfactual IIR; V. Conclusion; VI. Annexes; References



Sommario/riassunto

This paper explores how privatizing a pension system can affect sovereign credit risk. For this purpose, it analyzes the importance that rating agencies give to implicit pension debt (IPD) in their assessments of sovereign creditworthiness. We find that rating agencies generally do not seem to give much weight to IPD, focusing instead on explicit public debt. However, by channeling pension contributions away from the government and creating a deficit of resources to cover the current pension liabilities during the reform's transition period, a pension privatization reform may transform IPD int