Quantitative intelligence analysis : applied analytic models, simulations and games / / Edward Waltz

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910463501303321
• Autore: Waltz Edward
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Lanham, Maryland : , : Rowman & Littlefield, , 2014; ©2014
• ISBN: 1-4422-3587-X
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (309 p.)
• Collana: Security and Professional Intelligence Education Series
• Disciplina: 327.1201
• Soggetti: Intelligence service - Methodology; Quantitative research; Electronic books.
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Quantitative Intelligence Analysis; Table of Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Foreword; Preface; Chapter 1 The Intelligence Analyst and Synthesis; Models in Intelligence and Policy; The Tools of Synthesis; The Organization of this Book; Chapter 2 Modeling in Intelligence; Using Models to Understand Systems; Using Models to Enable Analytic Collaboration; Using Models to Explain Analytic Judgment; Challenges to the Use of Models; Determinism, Causality, and Prediction; Case Study: Understanding Terrorist Organization; Summary; Chapter 3 Mental Models in Intelligence Analysis; Models of ThinkingMental Models as Artifacts of Thinking; Intelligence Analysts and Their Mental Models; Chapter 4 Translating Mental Models to Explicit Sharable Models; Framing and Representing an Intelligence Problem; Tacit-Explicit Capture and Interaction; The Tacit-Explicit Translation Process; Understanding Mental Models and Cognitive Processes to Enhance Analytic Rigor; Chapter 5 Explicit Models in Structured and Quantitative Analysis; Structured and Quantitative Analysis; First, a Caution; Explicit Models in the Analytic Process; The Explicit Modeling Process; Case Study: An Example of the Explicit Modeling ProcessSummary; Chapter 6 Explicit Models of Analytic Thinking; Expressing Analytic ; Thought in Explicit Models; Modeling the Concepts that Precede Analysis; Modeling in Counterfactual Reasoning; Modeling in Convergent Reasoning from Evidence to Inference; Modeling Comparative Reasoning about Alternative Hypotheses; Integrating Target and Analysis Models; Chapter 7 Explicit Models of the Targets of Analysis; Models of Data and Models of Theory; Models and Model Prediction in Intelligence; Abstracting Real Target Systems; The Validity of Models; Descriptive Models in AnalysisExploratory and Predictive Simulations in Analysis; Case Study: Simulating a Physical System; Simulating Human Systems; Case Study: Civilian Population Responses to Sanctions; Hybrid Modeling Socio-Technical Systems; Case Study: Model-based support to Planning: Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (JIPOE); Methodology and Technology Challenges; Chapter 8 Analytic Wargaming in Intelligence; Principles of Gaming and Categories of Games; Analytic Games in Intelligence; The Game Process; Incorporating Computational Models and Simulations in Analytic GamesCase Study: Conducting Analytic Games to Support Intelligence; CRYSTALLINE; VERTIGO; Analytic Games to Enhance Work-Group Effectiveness; Chapter 9 Model-Based Support to Collection and Operations; Model-Based Approaches to ISR Collection Support for Physical Target Systems; Model-Based Approaches to Support Activity-Based Intelligence (ABI) for Human Target Systems; Case Study: Model-Based Collection Support; Hypothesis Testing Analytic Method; The Future Role of Models and Simulations in Joint Intelligence Operations; Chapter 10 Implementing the Discipline of Explicit Quantitative Modeling and Analytic Gaming
• Sommario/riassunto: Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst's mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst's reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes:Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst's mental models as computational models;Dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games;The structure of an analyst's mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledg