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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910461973103321 |
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Autore |
Cherif Reda |
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Titolo |
Public debt dynamics [[electronic resource] ] : the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks / / prepared by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, DC, : International Monetary Fund, 2012 |
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ISBN |
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1-4755-9375-9 |
1-4755-6554-2 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (29 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF working paper ; ; 12/230 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Soggetti |
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Debts, Public |
Inflation (Finance) |
Electronic books. |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Related Literature; III. Empirical Model, Estimation, and Data; A. Empirical Model; B. Estimation and Impulse Responses; C. Data and Descriptive Statistics; IV. Public Debt Dynamics and Impulse Responses; A. Debt Impulse Responses to an Austerity Shock; B. Debt Impulse Responses to Inflation and Growth Shocks; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; Figures; 1. Evolution of Public Debt (Percent of GDP, 1947:II-2011:III); 2. Debt Impulse Response: The Effect of a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock |
3. Decomposition of the Debt Impulse Response under the Narrative Identification4. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Average Initial Conditions (Normal Times); 5. Debt Impulse Responses to a One Standard Deviation Primary Surplus Shock: Initial Conditions of 2011; 6. A Recent History and Forecast of the Debt Ratio Based on the Past Dynamics (2011:IV-); 7. Debt Impulse Responses to Macro Shocks and Decomposition: Blanchard-Perotti Identification; A1. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Impulse Responses (GIR Identification); Appendix A |
A2. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2011:IVA3. A Comparison of VAR Models: Debt Forecast, Starting 2009:III; Appendix |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an |
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