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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910461969603321 |
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Autore |
Barnett Steven |
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Titolo |
Inflation dynamics in Mongolia [[electronic resource] ] : understanding the roller coaster / / Steven Barnett, Julia Bersch, and Yasuhisa Ojima |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C., : International Monetary Fund, c2012 |
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ISBN |
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1-4755-9827-0 |
1-4755-3267-9 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (22 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF working paper ; ; WP/12/192 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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BerschJulia |
OjimaYasuhisa |
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Soggetti |
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Inflation (Finance) - Mongolia |
Finance - Mongolia |
Electronic books. |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Inflation: Headline CPI; 2. Inflation, 1995-2010; II. A Closer Look at the Consumer Price Index; 3. Export Earnings and Fiscal Spending; 4. Administered Price Changes; 5. Inflation: Contributions to Change; 6. Inflation Rates; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics of the Overall Inflation Rate and the Main Subcomponents; 7 Seasonal Factors; 8. Inflation Rates (In percent, seasonally adjuted annualized rate month-on-month); 9. Inflation Rates (In percent, seasonally adjusted annualized rate) |
III. Understanding Inflation Through its Time Series PropertiesA. Inflation Persistence and Expectations; 2. Persistence in CPI and its Subcomponents; 10. Inflation: Persistence Shocks; 3. Mongolia and Other Copper Producers; B. Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) Analysis; 11 Impulse Response Functions; IV. Demand-pull Factor of Inflation; A. The Role of Fiscal Spending; 12 Variance Decomposition; 13. Fiscal Spending (In percent of non-mineral GDP); 14. Fiscal Spending (In percent, 4-quarter moving average, year-on-year); 4. Inflationary Impact of Government Spending, 2000-11 |
B. The Role of Output Gaps and the Exchange Rate15. Mongolia: Output Gap (2000Q1-2011Q4); 16. Exchange Rates; 5. Phillips-Curve |
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Estimation; V. International Context; A. Commodity Prices; 17. Food Prices; 18. Rice Prices; 19. Wheat and Flour Prices; B. Price Spillovers from Neighboring Countries-China and Russia; 6. China and Russia; VI. Conclusion; Annex. The Ulaanbaatar and National CPIs; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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Inflation in Mongolia resembles a roller coaster ride with sharp rises and steep drops. Understanding why is critical for formulating and assessing monetary policy. Food prices are found to be a key driver of inflation, and, not surprising given Mongolia's geography, are determined primarily by local supply conditions, highly seasonal, and subject to large but short-lived shocks (usually weather related). Nonetheless, demand factors are also found to be significant in explaining price movements and empirical evidence suggests that a 10 percent increase in government wages, for example, would p |
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