Tychomancy [[electronic resource] ] : inferring probability from causal structure / / Michael Strevens

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910462798403321
• Autore: Strevens Michael
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Cambridge, Mass., : Harvard University Press, 2013
• ISBN: 0-674-07602-8; 0-674-07598-6
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (280 p.)
• Disciplina: 003/.1
• Soggetti: Empiricism; Inference; Probabilities; Electronic books.
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Front matter -- CONTENTS -- FIGURES -- AUTHOR'S NOTE -- PHYSICAL INTUITION -- I. 1859 -- 1. THE APRIORIST -- 2. THE HISTORICAL WAY -- 3. THE LOGICAL WAY -- 4 THE COGNITIVE WAY -- II. EQUIDYNAMICS -- 5. STIRRING -- 6. SHAKING -- 7. BOUNCING -- 8. UNIFYING -- III. BEYOND PHYSICS -- 9. 1859 AGAIN -- 10. APPLIED BIOEQUIDYNAMICS -- 11. INACCURACY, ERROR, AND OTHER FLUCTUATIONS -- IV. BEFORE AND AFTER -- 12. THE EXOGENOUS ZONE -- 13. THE ELEMENTS OF EQUIDYNAMICS -- 14. PREHISTORY AND META - HISTORY -- NOTES -- GLOSSARY -- REFERENCES -- INDEX
• Sommario/riassunto: Tychomancy-meaning "the divination of chances"-presents a set of rules for inferring the physical probabilities of outcomes from the causal or dynamic properties of the systems that produce them. Probabilities revealed by the rules are wide-ranging: they include the probability of getting a 5 on a die roll, the probability distributions found in statistical physics, and the probabilities that underlie many prima facie judgments about fitness in evolutionary biology. Michael Strevens makes three claims about the rules. First, they are reliable. Second, they are known, though not fully consciously, to all human beings: they constitute a key part of the physical intuition that allows ; us to navigate around the world safely in the absence of formal scientific knowledge. Third, they have played a crucial but unrecognized role in several major scientific innovations. A large part of Tychomancy is devoted to this historical role for probability inference rules. Strevens first analyzes James Clerk Maxwell's extraordinary, apparently a priori, deduction of the molecular velocity distribution in gases, which launched statistical physics. Maxwell did not derive his distribution from logic alone, Strevens proposes, but rather from probabilistic knowledge common to all human beings, even infants as young as six months old. Strevens then turns to Darwin's theory of natural selection, the statistics of measurement, and the creation of models of complex systems, contending in each case that these elements of science could not have emerged when or how they did without the ability to "eyeball" the values of physical probabilities.

Labor in the new economy [[electronic resource] /] / edited by Katharine G. Abraham, James R. Spletzer, and Michael Harper

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910459255403321
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Chicago ; ; London, : University of Chicago Press, 2010
• ISBN: 1-282-90172-9; 9786612901720; 0-226-00146-6
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (520 p.)
• Collana: Studies in income and wealth ; ; v. 71
• Altri autori (Persone): AbrahamKatharine G; SpletzerJames; HarperMichael J
• Disciplina: 331.120973
• Soggetti: Labor market - United States; Wage differentials - United States; Job security - United States; Electronic books.
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Includes revised versions of the papers and discussions presented at the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, held in Bethesda, Maryland, Nov. 16-17, 2007.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Front matter -- National Bureau of Economic Research -- Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research -- Contents -- Prefatory Note -- Introduction -- 1. What Do We Really Know about Changes in Wage Inequality? -- 2. Recent Trends in Compensation Inequality -- 3. Are the New Jobs Good Jobs? -- 4. New Data for Answering Old Questions Regarding Employee Stock Options -- 5. Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS -- 6. Job Loss and the Decline in Job Security in the United States -- 7. What Do We Know about Contracting Out in the United States?: Evidence from Household and Establishment Surveys -- 8. Measuring Tradable Services and the Task Content of Offshorable Services Jobs -- 9. Why Do BLS Hours Series Tell Different Stories about Trends in Hours Worked? -- 10. The Effect of Population Aging on the Aggregate Labor Market -- 11. Emerging Labor Market Trends and Workplace Safety and Health -- 12. Measuring Labor Composition: A Comparison of Alternate Methodologies -- Contributors -- Author Index -- Subject Index
• Sommario/riassunto: As the structure of the economy has changed over the past few decades, researchers and policy makers have been increasingly concerned with how these changes affect workers. In this book, leading economists examine a variety of important trends in the new economy, including inequality of earnings and other forms of compensation, job security, employer reliance on temporary and contract workers, hours of work, and workplace safety and health. In order to better understand these vital issues, scholars must be able to accurately measure labor market activity. Thus, Labor in the New Economy also addresses a host of measurement issues: from the treatment of outliers, imputation methods, and weighting in the context of specific surveys to evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of data from different sources. At a time when employment is a central concern for individuals, businesses, and the government, this volume provides important insight into the recent past and will be a useful tool for researchers in the future.