Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling, Volume I [[electronic resource] ] : Review and Recommendations

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910456248903321
• Autore: Staff National Research Council
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Washington, : National Academies Press, 1991
• ISBN: 1-280-21186-5; 9786610211869; 0-309-55730-5; 0-585-00194-4
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (360 p.)
• Altri autori (Persone): StatisticsCommittee on National
• Disciplina: 361.6/1
• Soggetti: Public welfare - Decision making; Social policy - Decision making; Social policy - Simulation methods; Decision making - Mathematical models; Electronic books.
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di contenuto: Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Summary; IMPROVING THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS: INVESTMENT PRIORITIES; Validation; Better Data; THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing Technology; Validation; Documentation and Archiving; The Structure of the Community; The Use of Microsimulation for Basic Research; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING POLICY ANALYSIS; Data; Validation; RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MICROSIMULATION MODELS; Databases; Model Design and Development; Computing Technology; Health Care and Retirement Policy Modeling Validation; Documentation and Archiving; Structure of the Microsimulation Modeling Community; 1 Introduction; A SCENE IN WASHINGTON, D.C.; THE TOOLS OF POLICY ANALYSIS; THE PANEL STUDY; Part I Information for Social Welfare Policy: Toward A Second Revolution; 2 The Search for Useful ; Information; THE FIRST INFORMATION REVOLUTION; POLICY ANALYSIS: BETWEEN SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH AND POLITICS; A CASE STUDY OF POLICY ANALYSIS: THE FAMILY SUPPORT ACT OF 1988; Provisions That Could Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models; Provisions That Could Not Be Estimated With Microsimulation Models Problems in the Estimation Process; 3 Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis; A STRATEGY FOR INVESTMENT; DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY; Investment in Data Production; Coordination of Data Production; Broadened Data Collection; Linking Survey and Administrative Data; Adding Value to Existing Data; VALIDATION; The Difficulty of Validation; Kinds of Model Validation; External Validation; Internal Validation; Investment in Model Validation; DOCUMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION OF THE RESULTS OF POLICY ANALYSIS; Documentation and Archiving as Aids to Validation Communicating Validation Results to Decision Makers; Appendix Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals; MODELS; UNCERTAINTY OF AN ESTIMATE; CONDITIONAL VERSUS UNCONDITIONAL CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; AN ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAM; Part II The Role of Microsimulation as a Policy Analysis Tool; 4 Microsimulation Models: Then and Now; BASIC ELEMENTS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS; DEVELOPMENT OF MICROSIMULATION MODELING FOR POLICY ANALYSIS; Origins: 1950's to mid-1960's; Development of Static Models: Late 1960's to Early 1980's; Development of Dynamic Models: 1970's to Early 1980's Retreats and Advances: The 1980's; ROLE AND CURRENT STATUS OF MICROSIMULATION: FINDINGS; Overall Value; A Range of Policy Analysis Tools; Analytical Costs; Model Uncertainty; Data Adequacy; Research Knowledge; Computer Technologies; Microsimulation Modeling Community; Future Directions; 5 Databases for Microsimulation; DATA QUALITY: THE MARCH CPS; Survey-Based Problems; Coverage; Response Rates; Sampling Error; Missing Detail; Data Omissions; STRATEGIES FOR TREATING MISSING AND ERRONEOUS DATA; Disaggregation; Imputation for Item Nonresponse; Imputation for Items Not Collected