1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910254122803321

Autore

Wijesundera Isuri

Titolo

Natural Disasters, When Will They Reach Me? / / by Isuri Wijesundera, Malka N. Halgamuge, Thrishantha Nanayakkara, Thas Nirmalathas

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Singapore : , : Springer Singapore : , : Imprint : Springer, , 2016

ISBN

981-10-1113-3

Edizione

[1st ed. 2016.]

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (143 p.)

Collana

Springer Natural Hazards, , 2365-0656

Disciplina

363.349

Soggetti

Natural disasters

Computer simulation

Environmental monitoring

Computers

Environmental sciences

Natural Hazards

Simulation and Modeling

Monitoring/Environmental Analysis

Information Systems and Communication Service

Math. Appl. in Environmental Science

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Note generali

Description based upon print version of record.

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.

Nota di contenuto

The stochastic nature of disaster propagation -- Predicting Flood induced by cyclones -- How to forecast the spread of bushfires -- Propagation on a non-homogeneous media in the presence of bias -- Conclusion.

Sommario/riassunto

The expected time of impact, also known as the mean first passage time (MFPT) to reach failure, is a critical metric in the management of natural disasters. The complexity of the dynamics governing natural disasters lead to stochastic behaviour. This book shows that state transitions of many such systems translate into random walks on their respective state spaces, biased and shaped by environmental inhomogeneity. Thus the probabilistic treatment of those random walks gives valuable insights of expected behaviour. A comprehensive case



study of predicting cyclone induced flood is followed by a discussion of generic methods that predict MFPT addressing directional bias. This is followed by discussing MFPT prediction methods in systems showing network inhomogeneity. All presented methods are illustrated using real datasets of natural disasters. The book ends with a short discussion of possible future research areas introducing the problem of predicting MFPT for bush-fire propagation.