Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning / / Jennifer Kavanagh

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910219977303321
• Autore: Kavanagh Jennifer <1981->
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Santa Monica, CA, : RAND Corporation, 2013
• ISBN: 0-8330-7905-0; 0-8330-7903-4; 0-8330-7904-2
• Edizione: [1st ed.]
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (77 p.)
• Disciplina: 355/.033573
• Soggetti: Intervention (International law); Military planning - United States; United States Military policy Case studies
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "Prepared for the United States Army."; "RAND Arroyo Center."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Preface; Contents; Figures; Tables; Summary; Acknowledgements; Abbreviations; Chapter One: Introduction; Chapter Two: Defining Temporal Dependence: A Review of Existing Evidence; What Is Temporal Dependence?; What Does the Literature Say About Intervention Timing and Temporal Dependence?; Interventions and Timing; Predictors of Armed Conflict and Political Instability.; Temporal Dependence in Financial Markets; Summary; Chapter Three: Testing for Temporal Dependence; Methodology; Data and Operationalization; Interventions; Armed Conflict; Results; What Drives Armed Conflict?Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Is There Temporal Dependence Between Military Deployments?; Testing for Robustness: Linear and ARIMA Specifications; Summary; Chapter Four: Implications for Force Planning; Will Temporal Dependence Affect Force Requirements?; Mechanisms of Temporal Dependence; How Can Temporal Dependence Be Integrated into the Planning Process?; Assessing the Relevance of Temporal Clustering; Building Temporal Dependence into Force Planning; Avoiding Clustered Interventions; Chapter Five: Conclusion and Next ; Steps; Bibliography
• Sommario/riassunto: Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent past. Integrating the concept of temporal dependence into DoD planning processes could help planners develop more appropriate force estimates.