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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910162944903321 |
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Autore |
Cottarelli Carlo |
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Titolo |
Lost and Found : : Market Access and Public Debt Dynamics / / Carlo Cottarelli, Andrea Presbitero, Antonio Bassanetti |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016 |
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ISBN |
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1-4755-6786-3 |
1-4755-6789-8 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (35 pages) : illustrations (some color), graphs, tables |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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PresbiteroAndrea |
BassanettiAntonio |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Debts, Public |
Gross domestic product |
Foreign exchange market |
Exports and Imports |
Macroeconomics |
Public Finance |
International Lending and Debt Problems |
International Financial Markets |
National Deficit Surplus |
Debt |
Debt Management |
Sovereign Debt |
Fiscal Policy |
International economics |
Public finance & taxation |
Public debt |
Debt sustainability |
Debt sustainability analysis |
Fiscal stance |
Debt default |
External debt |
Fiscal policy |
Debts, External |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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The empirical literature on sovereign debt crises identifies the level of public debt (measured as a share of GDP) as a key variable to predict debt defaults and to determine sovereign market access. This evidence has led to the widespread use of (country-specific) debt thresholds to assess debt sustainability. We argue that the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio, whose use is justified on a theoretical and empirical ground, should not be the only fiscal metric to assess the complex relationship between public debt and debt defaults/market access. In particular, we show that, in a large panel of emerging markets, the dynamics of the debt ratio plays a critical role for market access. In particular, given a certain level of debt, a steadily declining debt ratio is associated with a lower probability of debt distress/market loss and with a higher likelihood of market re-access once access had been lost. |
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