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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910162944303321 |
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Autore |
Chen Sophia |
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Titolo |
Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts / / Sophia Chen, Romain Ranciere |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016 |
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ISBN |
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1-4755-6768-5 |
1-4755-6770-7 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (34 pages) : illustrations, tables |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Economic forecasting |
Economic indicators |
Credit |
Banks and Banking |
Macroeconomics |
Money and Monetary Policy |
Real Estate |
Investments: Bonds |
Forecasting and Other Model Applications |
Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy |
Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation |
Price Level |
Inflation |
Deflation |
Housing Supply and Markets |
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General |
Macroeconomics: Consumption |
Saving |
Wealth |
General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
Property & real estate |
Finance |
Monetary economics |
Investment & securities |
Asset prices |
Housing prices |
Yield curve |
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Government consumption |
Prices |
Bond yields |
Financial institutions |
Money |
National accounts |
Housing |
Interest rates |
Consumption |
Economics |
Bonds |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models. |
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