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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910155013803321 |
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Autore |
Nowak Sylwia |
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Titolo |
Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks / / Sylwia Nowak, Pratiti Chatterjee |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016 |
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ISBN |
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9781475555530 |
1475555539 |
9781475555561 |
1475555563 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (15 pages) : illustrations (some color), tables |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Economic forecasting - United States |
Exports and Imports |
Inflation |
Macroeconomics |
Forecasting |
Forecasting and Other Model Applications |
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty |
Business Fluctuations |
Cycles |
Current Account Adjustment |
Short-term Capital Movements |
Price Level |
Deflation |
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
International economics |
Economic Forecasting |
Economic growth |
Current account balance |
Economic forecasting |
Business cycles |
Balance of payments |
Prices |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that common factors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demand drive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G- 20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism has dampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating the common structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequent forecasts. |
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