1.

Record Nr.

UNINA9910155013103321

Autore

Jalles João Tovar

Titolo

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates : : Does Politics Matter? / / João Tovar Jalles, Carlos Mulas-Granados, José Tavares

Pubbl/distr/stampa

Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016

ISBN

1-4755-5578-4

1-4755-5583-0

Descrizione fisica

1 online resource (30 pages) : illustrations, tables

Collana

IMF Working Papers

Altri autori (Persone)

Mulas-GranadosCarlos

TavaresJosé

Disciplina

332.45

Soggetti

Foreign exchange rates - Political aspects

Foreign Exchange

Public Finance

Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government

National Deficit Surplus

Debt

Debt Management

Sovereign Debt

Currency

Foreign exchange

Public finance & taxation

Exchange rate arrangements

Conventional peg

Government asset and liability management

Exchange rate flexibility

Exchange rates

Public financial management (PFM)

Finance, Public

Austria

Lingua di pubblicazione

Inglese

Formato

Materiale a stampa

Livello bibliografico

Monografia

Nota di bibliografia

Includes bibliographical references.



Sommario/riassunto

We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect  of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as  policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal  performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We  confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79  countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong  politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to  fixed exchange rates. Finally, we use the synthetic control method to illustrate how the transition  from flexible to fully fixed exchange rate under the Euro impacted negatively fiscal discipline in  European countries. Our results are robust to a number of important sensitivity checks, including  different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline, and sub-sample analysis.