Dangerous thresholds : managing escalation in the 21st century / / Forrest E. Morgan ... [et al.]

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910145964603321
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Santa Monica, CA, : RAND Project Air Force, 2008
• ISBN: 1-282-03321-2; 9786612033216; 0-8330-4636-5
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (275 p.)
• Collana: Rand Corporation monograph series
• Altri autori (Persone): MorganForrest E
• Disciplina: 355.02
• Soggetti: Escalation (Military science); Conflict management; Security, International - 21st century; World politics - 21st century
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: "MG-614-AF"--P. [4] of cover.; "Prepared for the United States Air Force."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 225-245).
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Preface; Contents; Figures; Summary; Acknowledgments; Glossary; CHAPTER ONE- Introduction; Background; Contemporary Challenges; Purpose of This Monograph; Organization and Approach; CHAPTER TWO- The Nature of Escalation; Understanding Escalation; Dimensions of Escalation: Vertical, Horizontal, and Political; Escalation Mechanisms; Complexity in Escalation; Motives for Escalation; Dynamics of Escalation; Escalation and Instability in the 21st Century; Anticipating and Managing Escalation; CHAPTER THREE- China's Thinking on Escalation: Evidence from Chinese Military Writings; Introduction Background and Conceptual Issues; Understanding Chinese Views on Escalation and War Control; Assessing Chinese Escalation Behavior Through the Lens of the Second Artillery Doctrine; Second Artillery Nuclear Operations and Escalation; Second Artillery Conventional Missile Strike Campaigns; Chinese Views on Space Warfare and Escalation; Conclusion; CHAPTER FOUR- Regional Nuclear Powers; Escalation Risks Inherent in Emergent Nuclear Capability; Sources of Regional Instability; Conclusion; CHAPTER FIVE- Escalation ; in Irregular Warfare; Irregular Warfare's Many Paths of Escalation; Escalation in Stability Operations: Two Illustrative Cases Escalation in the Global Jihad; Escalation Management in the Struggle Against Global Jihad; Conclusion; CHAPTER SIX- Managing Escalation in a Complex World; The First Step in Managing Escalation Is Understanding Its Nature; Managing Escalation Risks in Today's World; Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force; APPENDIX A- China, Force, and Escalation: Continuities Between Historical Behavior and Contemporary Writings; APPENDIX B- Case Studies of Escalation in Stability Operations; APPENDIX C- Modified Method for Delphi Analyses; Bibliography
• Sommario/riassunto: This analysis of escalation dynamics and approaches to escalation management draws on a range of historical examples from World War I to the struggle against global Jihad to inform escalation-related decision making.