Timing the market [[electronic resource] ] : how to profit in the stock market using the yield curve, technical analysis, and cultural indicators / / Deborah J. Weir

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910143568503321
• Autore: Weir Deborah J
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Hoboken, N.J., : Wiley, c2005
• ISBN: 1-119-20129-2; 1-280-44799-0; 9786610447992; 0-471-76764-6
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (431 p.)
• Collana: Wiley trading series
• Disciplina: 332.6; 332.642
• Soggetti: Investment analysis; Speculation; Stock price forecasting; Electronic books.
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 397-398) and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Timing the Market; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction; Part I: Yield Curve Analysis; Chapter 1: Demystifying the Investment World; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; IMPORTANCE OF INTEREST RATES; THE SHAPE OF THE YIELD CURVE IS KEY; NORMAL YIELD CURVE; INVERTED YIELD CURVE; THE YIELD CURVE PREDICTS; SUMMARY; Chapter 2: Back of the Envelope Forecast Model; ECONOMIC FORECASTING MODEL; GRAPH OF TRADES; WHERE TO FIND DATA; BOND RETURNS VARY WIDELY; RAPID GROWTH IN THE SIXTIES; STAGFLATION IN THE SEVENTIES; INFLATION IN THE EIGHTIES; DISINFLATION IN THE NINETIES; DISINFLATION IN THE NEW CENTURY; SUMMARY; Chapter 3: Money Markets MatterTREASURY BILLS ARE A BENCHMARK; MONEY MARKETS MUST BE NORMAL; KEY TO TIMING STOCK PURCHASES; SUMMARY; Chapter 4: Long-Term Bonds Give Advance Warning; TEN-YEAR NOTE IS PIVOTAL; LONG-TERM TREASURY BONDS ARE THE FIRST TO INVERT; PROBLEM REAL ESTATE LOANS; ; INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS; INTERNET PROBLEMS; SUMMARY; Chapter 5: Expected Returns for the Stock Market; HOW PROFESSIONALS THINK; PORTFOLIO BENCHMARK RETURN; STOCKS' LONG-TERM EXPECTED RETURN; TEN PERCENT RATES RISK RECESSIONS; STAYING IN PORTFOLIO GUIDELINES; TRADING THE TEN-YEAR NOTE; SUMMARY; Chapter 6: Bond Quality SpreadsQUALITY SPREADS; BOND QUALITY SPREADS FORECAST STOCKS; THE 1987 CRASH; THE 1998 MARKET DECLINE; APPLICATION TO EMERGING ECONOMIES; SUMMARY; Chapter 7: Federal Funds Rates; HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE CREATES MONEY; MONEY SUPPLY AFFECTS THE ECONOMY; THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE PREDICTS; INVESTING WITH THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE; SUMMARY; Chapter 8: Summary of Yield Curve Analysis; SUMMARY OF YIELD CURVE ANALYSIS; APPLICATION TO A MODEL PORTFOLIO; A MARKET CYCLE; BENCHMARKS; THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S GOALS; THE FUTURE FOR INVESTORS; SUMMARY; PART TWO COVERS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS; CHARTINGPart II: Technical Analysis; TECHNICAL ANALYSIS; BEHAVIORAL FINANCE; Chapter 9: Market Breadth: Advancing Issues in the Dow; DOW DEFINED; USING THE DOW; ADDING A NEW TRADE TO OUR RECORD; IMPROVED RETURNS; SUMMARY; Chapter 10: The Volatility Index; DEFINITION OF THE VOLATILITY INDEX; HOW VIX MEASURES EMOTIONAL EXTREMES; WHY THE VIX IS IMPORTANT; WHERE TO FIND THE VIX; USING THE VIX; SUMMARY; Chapter 11: The Put/Call Ratio; PUT/CALL RATIO DEFINED; WHERE TO FIND THE PUT/CALL RATIO; CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE RATIO; PUT/CALL RATIO'S RECORD AS AN INDICATOR; SUMMARY; Chapter 12: Moving AveragesDEFINITION OF MOVING AVERAGE; WHERE TO FIND MOVING AVERAGES; IMPORTANCE OF MOVING AVERAGES; USING MOVING AVERAGES; SUMMARY; Chapter 13: Using Moving Averages: The MACD Line; MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE LINE; A HISTOGRAM IS A PICTURE; MOMENTUM; HISTOGRAMS WITH THE VIX AND PUT/CALL RATIO; SUMMARY; Chapter 14: Leverage: Short Positions and Margin Debt; LEVERAGE CAUSES MARKET EXTREMES; MARGIN DEBT; WHERE TO FIND INFORMATION; USING THE DATA; SUMMARY; Chapter 15: Summary of Technical Analysis; OUR USE OF THE DOW; ADDING A NEW TRADE TO OUR RECORD; VOLATILITY INDEX
• Sommario/riassunto: The first definitive guide to understanding and profiting from the relationship between the stock market and interest rates It's well established that interest rates significantly impact the stock market. This is the first book that definitively explores the interest rate/stock market relationship and describes a specific system for profiting from the relationship. Timing the Market provides an historically proven system, rooted in fundamental economics, that allows investors and traders to forecast the stock market using data from the interest rate markets-together with supporting ma