Inside the crystal ball : how to make and use forecasts / / Maury Harris

• Record Nr.: UNINA9910132307403321
• Autore: Harris Maury
• Pubbl/distr/stampa: Hoboken, New Jersey : , : Wiley, , 2015; ©2015
• ISBN: 1-119-20958-7; 1-118-86517-0
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (397 p.)
• Disciplina: 330.01/12
• Soggetti: Economic forecasting; Business cycles; Forecasting
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Title Page; Copyright; Contents; Acknowledgments; Introduction: What You Need to Know about Forecasting; Chapter 1 What Makes a Successful Forecaster?; Grading Forecasters: How Many Pass?; Why It's So Difficult to Be Prescient; Bad Forecasters: One-Hit Wonders, Perennial Outliers, and Copycats; What Is "Success" in Forecasting?; One-Hit Wonders; Who Is More Likely to Go Out on a Limb?; Consensus Copycats; Success Factors: Why Some Forecasters Excel; Does Experience Make Much of a Difference in Forecasting?; Chapter 2 The Art and Science of Making and Using Forecasts; Judgment Counts More Than Math Habits of Successful Forecasters: How to Cultivate Them; Judging and Scoring Forecasts by Statistics; Chapter 3 What Can We Learn from History?; It's Never Normal; What Does U.S. Economic History Teach about the Future?; Some Key Characteristics of Business Cycles; National versus State Business Cycles: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?; U.S. Monetary Policy and the Great Depression; The Ghost of the Great Depression Has Returned to Haunt Business Forecasters; The Great Inflation Is Hard to Forget; The Great Moderation: Why It's Still Relevant; Why Was There Reduced Growth Volatility during the Great Moderation?Chapter 4 When Forecasters Get It Wrong; The Granddaddy of ; Forecasting Debacles: The Great Depression; The Great Recession: Grandchild of the Granddaddy; The Great Recession: Lessons Learned; The Productivity Miracle and the ""New Economy''; Productivity: Lessons Learned; Y2K: The Disaster That Wasn't; The Tech Crash Was Not Okay; Forecasters at Cyclical Turning Points: How to Evaluate Them; Forecasting Recessions; Realizing You Are in a Recession; Forecasting Recessions: Lessons Learned; Chapter 5 Can We Believe What Washington, D.C. Tells Us?Does the U.S. Government ""Cook the Books'' on Economic Data Reports?; To What Extent Are Government Forecasts Politically Motivated?; Can You Trust the Government's Analyses of Its Policies' Benefits?; The Beltway's Multiplier Mania; Could the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 Create or Save over 5 Million Jobs?; Multiplier Effects: How Real Are They?; Why Are Some Assumed Output and Jobs Multipliers Larger Than Others?; Why Government Statistics Keep ""Changing Their Mind''; Living with Revisions; Chapter 6 Four Gurus of Economics: Whom to Follow?Four Competing Schools of Economic Thought; Minskyites: Should We Keep Listening to Them?; Who Was Hyman Minsky?; What Distinguished Minsky's Theories?; Why Were Minskyites Largely Ignored for So Long?; What Are Minskyites Telling Post-Great Recession Forecasters to Do Differently?; What Should Forecasters Learn from Minskyites?; Monetarists: Do They Deserve More Respect?; A Quick Review of How the Money Supply Influences the Economy; Criticisms of Monetarism; Supply-Siders: Still a Role to Play?; Some Studies on Supply-Side Economics; Keynesians: Are They Just Too Old-Fashioned?
• Sommario/riassunto: A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book:Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance.Demonstrates ""best practices"" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their pro